Tank: Poilievre snubs Saskatchewan, but Moe campaigns for him

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After the Conservatives swept Saskatchewan in two straight elections, the perception prevails that Pierre Poilievre’s party can count on this province almost unconditionally.

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That probably explains why Poilievre is unlikely to visit the Land of Living Skies as the federal election campaign winds down. And there seems little reason to doubt the Conservatives will once again dominate the province, even as another sweep appears unlikely.

Hard-core Saskatchewan Conservatives probably prefer that Poilievre focus his attention elsewhere to try to secure an election win to make him Canada’s prime minister. No reasonable person believes federal elections are won or lost based on Saskatchewan’s 14 seats when there are 343 ridings.

But Poilievre also needs to maintain the Conservative base in provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, while expanding the party’s appeal elsewhere.

Based on current polling, not to mention previous results, eight seats in the province can be considered safe for the Conservatives.

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The northern riding of Desnethe—Missinippi—Churchill River seems likely to go Liberal, preventing a third consecutive sweep, due to redrawn boundaries and a strong candidate in longtime NDP MLA Buckley Belanger.

Regina—Wascana is also expected to be competitive, with former provincial Liberal leader Jeff Walters facing incumbent Conservative Michael Kram in the seat held for 26 years by Liberal stalwart Ralph Goodale.

Four other ridings could feature real races, based on current polling and previous results: Regina—Lewvan, Saskatoon South, Saskatoon West and Saskatoon—University. Only these six Saskatchewan seats featured a Conservative vote share below 50 per cent in the 2021 election.

Coupled with a Liberal surge and a decline in NDP support, that could mean a less predictable outcome Monday. Given those trends, Poilievre’s snub feels like a slight in the province that supports his party like nowhere else in Canada.

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Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh held competing events in Saskatoon this month, although Carney failed to field a single question from journalists during his visit.

Saskatchewan has basically been reduced to flyover county by all major parties. No party leader has visited Regina yet.

But Poilievre’s absence has stood out as particularly conspicuous. His last major public appearance in the province that seems to love him the most came in November of 2023 at the Saskatchewan Party convention.

Former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole held a campaign rally at Saskatoon’s Kickin’ Horse Saloon in 2021, and other party leaders (Andrew Scheer in 2019 and Stephen Harper in 2015) considered Saskatchewan campaign stops worthwhile.

Poilievre held “Canada first” rallies in Edmonton and Winnipeg during the campaign, but not in Saskatchewan, even though he told a Saskatoon rally crowd in the spring of 2022 he considers Bridge City his “second home.”

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The Conservative leader was scheduled to hold a rally Wednesday night in Trenton, a Nova Scotia town with about the same population as Moosomin. (The Conservative Party failed to respond to inquiries asking whether a Poilievre appearance was pending in Saskatchewan.)

Sure, you can see strategic reasons why Poilievre would skip Saskatchewan.

But maybe he’s also nervous about who might show up for a rally in the Prairie heartland (controversial former Saskatchewan premier Grant Devine attended Poilievre’s 2022 Saskatoon rally) as he tries to appeal to the urban and suburban voters who will decide Monday’s election.

Never fear, though, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe rarely skips an opportunity to shill for the Conservatives, mostly by bashing the Liberals.

While fielding questions at the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association convention last week, Moe took shots at the federal Liberals and a gratuitous jab at Singh’s low poll numbers before adding: “I better be careful here.”

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Naturally, after engaging in needless divisive partisanship, he talked about the need for national unity.

Overall, Moe has probably inflicted more damage to Poilievre than he has helped him.

And you can certainly question the value of a leader’s voice when his party holds a single seat in the province’s two largest cities — exactly where the battleground ridings are located for the federal election.

Phil Tank is the digital opinion editor at the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.

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